33 Million Brazilians Stayed Home Before Final Presidential Vote

Thirty-three million Brazilians did not vote in this month's first round, the highest level of abstention since 1998. This large group of non-voters will determine the outcome of the presidential run-off on Sunday. The contest pits incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva against right-wing candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. Bolsonaro won the first round, and every first-round winner in Brazil since 1989 has gone on to become president.

The voting patterns reflect a major change in how ordinary Brazilians earn a living. In Osasco, a city near São Paulo known for its former steel and chemical plants, closed factories have been replaced by shopping malls and delivery app headquarters. Gilberto Almazan, a metalworkers' union leader, says the industrial working class that supported Lula in 2022 is disappearing. He notes that metal, chemical, and textile plants vanished while five malls were built in the area. He describes the union movement that helped Lula rise as stuck in the Middle Ages.

Many workers now drive cars, deliver food, or run small trades. Almazan calls this trend Uberisation. He argues that these workers value flexibility in their hours more than the collective benefits Lula has traditionally offered. Richard Lapper, a biographer of both Lula and Jair Bolsonaro, says Brazil industrialized late and deindustrialized early, making the economic shift feel sharper. Lapper calls Lula a victim of his own success.

Economic indicators have improved under Lula, with unemployment at a record low and Brazil removed from the UN's Hunger Map. However, Lapper describes a crisis of expectations where higher prices and household debt make life feel harder despite overall gains. Robson, a 53-year-old civil servant who previously supported Lula, blames the government's mismanagement for heavy taxes. Tairine, a hot dog seller who used to abstain, says she will vote for Bolsonaro because nothing has changed. Lawyer Gisele Bonfim, a Lula supporter in 2022, says Bolsonaro brings the hope of change.

Flávio Bolsonaro proposes cutting government spending and ministries while keeping some of Lula's welfare programs. He denies corruption accusations currently facing him. Lula's campaign is responding with large street rallies, claiming one in São Paulo drew about a million people. Lula, who is 80, uses social media to counter claims that he is past his prime, referring to himself as the king of selfies.

Among the poorest voters, Lula's welfare record still holds weight. In Maré, a large favela in Rio, abstention was high but Lula still won the first round. Vitoria, an 18-year-old mother earning under £300 a month, praises the minimum wage increase and free medicines. She worries about Bolsonaro's plan to label the Comando Vermelho gang a terrorist organization, citing police raids in Rio last year that killed more than 130 people. Andreza Dionísio, a resident of Maré, blames last-minute polling station changes and hopelessness about the future for low turnout.

Evangelical churches, attended by about a quarter of Brazilians, are filling gaps with childcare and employment advice. Pastor Silas Malafaia, who is investigating the coup trial of Jair Bolsonaro, says Flávio Bolsonaro shares the church's values on family and abortion. He calls the probe against him politically motivated. The first round appeared to be a rejection of Lula rather than an endorsement of his rival. Almazan fears there will never be another Lula.