Poll Finds Two-Thirds of Lebanese Shi'ites Want State to Take Control of Hezbollah Weapons

A new survey indicates that a majority of Lebanese Shi'ites now support transferring Hezbollah's weapons to the state, marking a notable departure from previous polling data. The research was conducted by Statistics Lebanon in September among 800 respondents from that community. Results released in mid-October show that 66.4% favor state control of the arsenal, while 29.6% prefer the group retains its weapons. Hezbollah has long maintained that its arms are necessary for defending Lebanon against Israel.

The poll reveals a strong preference for centralized government authority over national security matters. According to reports from the website Kataeb.org, 71.1% of respondents believe decisions on war and peace should belong exclusively to the Lebanese state. Only 5.9% indicated that Hezbollah leadership should have a larger role in shaping the country's future. Confidence in the military establishment also remains high, with 78.5% of participants stating they trust the Lebanese Armed Forces. The army was named the best institution to guarantee long-term security by 51.1% of respondents, compared to just 16.5% who chose Hezbollah.

Despite the shift toward state control, feelings toward the militant group remain complex. A majority of 67.4% said Hezbollah had either failed or only partially met its goals in the recent conflict with Israel. Furthermore, 42.1% expressed disappointment, anger, or concern regarding the group's leadership and the war's aftermath. However, 59.5% still reported some level of trust in the organization, with 37.1% indicating a great deal of trust. Roi Kais, a reporter for Israel's public broadcaster KAN, noted that Hezbollah's strength persists because of the support networks it provides, as long as no other entity fills that void.

These findings stand in contrast to a May 2026 survey by Lebanon's Information International. That earlier poll, cited in a June 10 analysis by researchers Orna Mizrahi and Moran Levanoni, found that 87.5% of Shi'ite respondents opposed disarming Hezbollah. Only 7.9% supported giving up its weapons. Mizrahi and Levanoni argued that the group's influence relies on social and economic networks, as well as the historical marginalization of the Shi'ite community. They suggested that weakening Hezbollah would require a stronger army and financial backing from Western and Gulf states to replace the services the group provides.

Local reactions also suggest growing caution. In the southern city of Tyre, property owners reportedly blocked the opening of a branch of Al-Qard Al-Hassan, a financial institution linked to Hezbollah, due to fears it might be targeted in an Israeli strike. Such branches have been hit in previous attacks. In response to the destruction caused by the war that began in March 2026, Hezbollah announced aid packages of up to $14,000 for eligible families in Beirut and its southern suburbs whose primary homes were destroyed, and up to $12,000 for those in other areas.

Hezbollah has suffered major military and leadership losses, including the killing of its leader Hassan Nasrallah in September 2024. The recent war caused heavy destruction in villages in southern Lebanon. The next phase of political development will depend on whether the Lebanese state can provide security, reconstruction, and economic opportunity to its citizens.