Third Iran War Looms Post-Elections

A third phase of conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran appears likely to begin after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3. Danny Citrinowicz, an Israeli analyst and former military intelligence official, stated that a renewed war seems almost inevitable. He predicts this round will be more destructive than the previous two engagements.

Citrinowicz expects Iranian officials to signal readiness for a new offensive targeting Gulf energy facilities, civilian infrastructure, and subsea internet cables in the Strait of Hormuz. He also identified the possibility of limited Iranian ground attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain to damage the U.S. economy. These targets differ from the initial strikes on nuclear sites in June 2025 and the February offensive on senior leadership, which included the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

The conflict has not ended despite the lack of major fresh strikes since the summer truce collapsed. The U.S. maintains a blockade on Iranian ports, while Iran continues to target commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz. These actions have raised global energy costs. On Thursday, President Donald Trump accused Iran on Truth Social of inflating oil prices before the midterms by creating fake hits and mines. A report from the Critical Threats Project and the Institute for the Study of War agreed that vessel attacks are designed to pressure Washington.

Iran’s stated demands include sanctions relief, reparations for previous strike damage, the release of frozen assets, and the retention of enriched uranium. Mediators from Pakistan and Qatar have attempted to restart talks for weeks without success. Suzanne Maloney of the Brookings Institution noted that the war has pushed Iran’s leadership to strengthen its revolutionary ideology. She warned that proxies like the Houthis and Hezbollah would likely retaliate by targeting soft economic sites such as airports.

The human cost of the two previous wars is substantial. Western NGOs report more than 7,000 deaths in Iran. Lebanese media cite over 4,000 deaths in Lebanon. Twenty-one U.S. service members and more than 70 Israelis have been killed. Deaths have also been recorded in the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Yemen. The Pentagon is currently drafting a new battle plan, though it remains unclear if President Trump will approve it.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has publicly stated a goal of finishing the job and removing the Iranian regime. He faces voters in the coming days in a potentially close race. Citrinowicz suggested that a widening crisis could help Netanyahu maintain power by enabling an emergency unity government. He warned that political calculation could combine with an Iranian development to produce an unnecessary attack.

Karim Sadjadpour of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace argued that diplomacy has been narrowed by Trump's maximalist aims. He stated that Iran would compromise only under existential economic pressure paired with a clear diplomatic exit. Sadjadpour noted that demanding Iran change its identity would not succeed.