Tel Aviv University study links 99,000 Israeli departures to pre-election uncertainty
An economist warns that next week's Knesset vote could accelerate a historic trend of emigration, driven by war and political instability.
By Tariq Mahmoud ·
Israel faces a demographic shift that mirrors other small economies grappling with prolonged conflict and political gridlock. The nation has experienced its highest level of emigration in recorded history, a trend that may intensify before voters head to the polls next week.
Itai Ater, a professor at the Coller School of Management at Tel Aviv University, attributes the exodus to a combination of war, economic instability, and a prolonged legal battle against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Ater notes that residents are questioning whether the country remains a suitable place to raise families. His February study, based on data from the Central Bureau of Statistics, counted 99,000 Israelis who left between January 2023 and December 2024.
The researchers defined emigrants as individuals absent for at least three consecutive months and spending more than 270 days outside the country during their first year away. Approximately 50,000 people departed in 2023, while 49,000 left in 2024. Ater states that preliminary data indicates this pattern continued through 2025. The 2023 surge followed the Hamas attack that killed roughly 1,200 people and led to a major military campaign in Gaza. Although a ceasefire took effect in October 2025, Israel retains control of about 60 percent of the enclave.
The upcoming election introduces further ambiguity for residents. Netanyahu, the country's longest-serving leader, seeks power again but polls suggest his far-right bloc will not secure the 61 Knesset seats required for a majority. Gadi Eisenkot's Yashar party is positioned to win the most seats but is also expected to fall short. Ater warns that without a clear change in governance, departure figures could rise sharply. "These [emigration] numbers will go up dramatically," he said.
The composition of the departing population raises economic concerns. The study identifies a sharp increase in the departure of skilled professionals, including 2,360 engineers and 509 doctors. Ater emphasizes that Israel's economy relies on this human capital, particularly in technology, academia, and healthcare. Liam Schwartz, who heads corporate immigration at the Tel Aviv law firm Goldfarb, Gross, Seligman, notes that companies are facing pressure from international investors to shift operations to North America or Europe.
Schwartz traces this corporate discontent to the judicial reforms proposed in January 2023, which would have reduced the powers of the Supreme Court. "They feel like the Israeli government is no longer meeting its part of the social contract," he said. The vote is viewed as a potential turning point for the country's demographic and economic stability.
Ater describes the situation as a strategic risk to Israel's standing as a liberal democracy. The trend is not limited to Israel; it is a concern for the Middle East and the wider world, reflecting how political uncertainty can drive skilled workers and residents to seek stability elsewhere.
Source: CBC News
